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But now that extra spending money is gone, economists are concerned about what comes next. That means many Americans have more debt than savings and suggests “that American households fully spent their pandemic-era savings as of March 2024,” they wrote in a recent report. Consumer spending plays a crucial role in driving economic growth in the United States, and it has shown remarkable strength over the past two years. “A continuing strong labor market could help consumers maintain spending patterns similar to those observed recently, even without pandemic-era savings,” they wrote. What comes next: Disney, Airbnb, Uber, Anheuser-Busch, Tapestry and Dillards all report later this week — investors will look for any comments about how consumer spending, or lack thereof, is altering revenue forecasts for 2024.
Persons: Hamza Abdelrahman, Luiz Edgard Oliveira, , Austan Goolsbee, ’ ”, Fitch, Sarah Wyeth, Chris Kempczinski, Abdelrahman, Airbnb, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Greg Abel, Buffett, , Abel, isn’t, Boeing “, Scott Stocker, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, San Francisco Federal Reserve, Chicago Federal, Society for, , Shoppers, Tyson Foods, , Disney, Anheuser, Busch, Berkshire, International Monetary Fund, Industries, Nvidia, Microsoft, FAA, Boeing, Federal Aviation Administration, CNN Locations: New York, United States, Omaha , Nebraska, Omaha, scamming
Americans are falling behind on their payments
  + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Americans are already struggling to keep up with their credit card payments. Strong consumer spending has buoyed the US economy through the Fed’s aggressive hiking cycle that has brought interest rates to a 23-year high. Economists say that Fed officials look closely at Americans’ ability to make their payments. Nunes, himself a former Republican congressman from California, pointed to how Trump Media has been among the most expensive stocks to borrow. “This is particularly troubling given that ‘naked’ short selling often entails sophisticated market participants profiting at the expense of retail investors,” the Trump Media CEO wrote.
Persons: New York CNN —, Austan Goolsbee, ’ ”, , Ramon Laguarta, Matt Egan, Devin Nunes, ” Nunes, Nunes, Read, Hanna Ziady, Colm Kelleher, Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Chicago Federal, Society for, New York Fed, ISI, PepsiCo, Commerce Department, Atlanta Fed, Social, Trump Media, Trump Media & Technology Group, Truth Social, Financial Services, Republican, Traders, UBS, Credit Suisse Locations: New York, California, Switzerland, Swiss
Gold retreats as Middle East tensions ebb
  + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold and silver bars of various sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum in Munich. Gold prices dipped on Monday, as easing fears of a wider Middle East conflict lowered bullion's safe-haven appeal, while market participants awaited a key U.S. inflation reading due later this week for interest rate cues. Spot gold fell 0.9% to $2,369.97 per ounce, as of 0451 GMT. Asian stocks recovered some losses and bond yields rose as fears of a wider Middle East conflict ebbed, with investors gravitating back towards riskier assets. Among other precious metals, spot silver fell 2.3% to $27.99 per ounce, spot platinum rose 0.3% to $934.03, and palladium fell 0.3% to $1,023.17.
Persons: Kelvin Wong, Wong, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Aurum, Asia Pacific, Treasury, Chicago Federal Locations: Munich, U.S, Tehran, Iran, OANDA, Israel, Hamas
The front month U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contract for May , which expires on Monday, fell 12 cents to $83.02 a barrel. Iran is the third largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, according to Reuters data. ANZ analysts said in a note that volatility in the Middle East will keep oil markets "jittery". On Saturday, a blast at an Iraqi military base killed a member of a security force that includes Iran-backed groups. Separately, on Sunday, Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah said it downed an Israeli drone that was on a combat mission in southern Lebanon.
Persons: Brent, Tina Teng, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: West Texas, Chicago Federal, Energy, U.S . House, Organization of, Petroleum, ANZ, Hezbollah Locations: Israel, Iran, U.S, Ukraine, China, Iraqi, Sunday, Lebanese, Lebanon, Gaza
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, U.S., February 14, 2024. Staff | Reuters"If you take a broad view, inflation got way above where we were comfortable with and it's down a lot," he said. The first three readings for this year indicate covering the remaining distance to 2% "may not be as rapid," he added. He described himself as a "proud data dog," and pointed to what he says is "the first rule of the kennel." "If you are unclear, stop walking and start sniffing," he said.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Council, Foreign Relations, Staff, Reuters, Market Locations: New York, U.S
The rise of BYD and other Chinese automakers led Tesla CEO Elon Musk in January to warn that Chinese automakers will "demolish" global rivals without trade barriers. Caresoft, an engineering benchmarking and consulting firm, has already torn down one China-built BYD Seagull and is preparing to do another. Michael Wayland / CNBCThe consulting firm tore apart the BYD Seagull piece by piece to benchmark the small EV against vehicles from other startups and traditional automakers. Its initial study of the BYD Seagull found it to be efficiently and simplistically designed, engineered and executed, but with unexpected quality and anticipated reliability. Growing concernsBYD's rise comes at a precarious time for global auto industry dynamics.
Persons: It's, Terry Woychowski, Warren Buffett, , BYD, Tesla, Elon Musk, Caresoft Bernstein, Nissan, Michael Wayland, Caresoft, simplistically, Woychowski, Mathew Vachaparampil, CNBC BYD, Stellantis —, Donald Trump, Zach Gibson, Jennifer Granholm, Republican Sen, Marco Rubio, Trump, , GM Dong, Tang, Marin Gjaja, Gjaja, Ford, you've, Evelyn Cheng, Dylan Butts Organizations: Shanghai International Automobile Industry, National Exhibition, Convention Center, Visual China, Getty, U.S, General Motors, Caresoft, Alliance for American Manufacturing, Overseas, Chevrolet, Nissan Leaf, Bolt, Chicago Federal Reserve, BYD, CNBC, Cox Automotive, Seagull, Tesla, Toyota Motor, Nissan Motor, Honda Motor, Hyundai, Kia, — GM, Ford, Chrysler, U.S ., Washington , D.C, Bloomberg, Republican, North American Free Trade, Republicans, Buick, SAIC, GM, GM Dong Yue Motors Co, Detroit Locations: Shanghai, LIVONIA, Mich, , China, Europe, Latin America, Detroit, Texas, Germany, Japan, U.S, Livonia , Michigan, America, XPENG, Mexico, Thailand, Brazil, Indonesia, Hungary, Uzbekistan, ., Washington ,, United States, Marco Rubio of Florida, Yantai, Shandong Province
Nov 17 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee on Friday said the U.S. central bank will "do what it takes" to bring inflation down to the Fed's 2% goal, but that inflation looks to be already on that track if housing price pressures ease as expected. "The overwhelmingly important thing of whether we are going to clearly be on path for inflation is what happens to house price inflation," Goolsbee said at the Chicago Fed's annual Community Bankers Symposium. "If we hit the targets that we expect to hit, then we would be on path to get to 2%, and that's what I call the golden path -- no recession, and it gets down -- but that housing inflation is the thing we should really keep an eye on." Reporting by Ann SaphirOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Ann Saphir Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Chicago, Thomson Locations: U.S
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks as he heads into the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. A Labor Department report earlier on Tuesday showed the consumer price index rose 3.2% in October from a year earlier, down more than 3 percentage points from January. The Fed targets 2% inflation by a different measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, which was 3.4% in September. Going forward, Goolsbee said he's focused on inflation data and sees overheating as a lesser risk than an external shock. "The key to further progress over the next few quarters will be what happens to housing inflation," he said.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Ann Saphir, Goolsbee, he's, Paul Simao Organizations: Chicago Fed, Kansas City, REUTERS, Chicago Federal, Detroit Economic, Labor Department, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S
Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield fell around 10 basis points to 4.569% and the 2-year yield slipped 3 basis points to 4.915%. As Treasury yields serve as the benchmark for interest rates on loans and cash investments, sinking yields generally benefit rate-sensitive companies more. Both the economy and markets have truly acted in strange, unprecedented ways ever since the pandemic.
Persons: Spencer Platt, they're, WTI's, that's, Alastair Pinder, Austan Goolsbee, Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Treasury, Big Tech, Amazon, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, U.S . Federal, HSBC, Chicago Federal Locations: New York City, That's, Israel
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineLast month's sudden surge in Treasury yields and oil prices — both of which tend to suppress investors' appetite for stocks — looks to be ending. As Treasury yields serve as the benchmark for interest rates on loans and cash investments, sinking yields generally benefit rate-sensitive companies more. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC, "Because of some of the strangeness of this moment, there is the possibility of the golden path ... that we got inflation down without a recession."
Persons: Goolsbee, David Paul Morris, they're, WTI's, that's, Alastair Pinder, Austan Goolsbee, Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Treasury, Big Tech, Amazon, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, U.S . Federal, HSBC, Chicago Federal Locations: Moran , Wyoming, That's, Israel
"Because of some of the strangeness of this moment, there is the possibility of the golden path ... that we got inflation down without a recession," Goolsbee said on CNBC's "Squawk Box." "The fastest drop in the inflation rate in any year was 1982," Goolsbee said. So we're making progress on the inflation rate." Goolsbee stressed that accomplishing such a "golden path" against a historic surge in inflation won't be an easy task. The Fed president said the central bank will be data dependent going forward, echoing Chair Jerome Powell's comments last week.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, we've, Jerome Powell's, Powell Organizations: Chicago Federal, Federal, Market, CNBC PRO Locations: hasn't
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reacts as he heads into the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. "On the real side I feel like nothing has happened so far that is convincing evidence that we are off the golden path," Goolsbee said on Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, recorded on Tuesday and aired on Thursday. Their projections also showed they expect to end next year with only a slightly higher unemployment rate, of 4.1%, and a slightly lower policy rate, of 5.1%. Should the rise in long-term yields go so far as to trigger a surge in unemployment or sharp slowdown in economic activity, the Fed will adjust, Goolsbee said. "We absolutely monitor that and are thinking about that, and that could be a blow to either the financial or the real economy," Goolsbee said.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Ann Saphir, Goolsbee, it's, Chizu Organizations: Chicago Fed, Kansas City, REUTERS, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Goolsbee
Factbox: Impact of possible strikes on Detroit Three automakers
  + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
A strike would ground production to a halt, costing billions of dollars in losses for automakers as well as their suppliers. UAW workers have struck work for two days at GM and for one day at Chrysler in 2007. Prior to 1976, strikes were frequently used as a bargaining tool at Detroit Three. STRIKE IMPACTThe Detroit Three automakers account for about 40% of U.S. new light vehicle sales by units, according to J.P. Morgan. STRIKE TOLLTen-day strikes at all three automakers could cost manufacturers, workers, suppliers and dealers more than $5 billion, according to economic consulting firm Anderson Economic Group.
Persons: Rebecca Cook, Kristin Dzizcek, Morgan Stanley, Morgan, Sam Fiorani, Anderson, Mehr Bedi, Nathan Gomes, Joe White, Anil D'Silva Organizations: General Motors, REUTERS, Ford Motor, UAW, DETROIT, United Auto Workers, Detroit Three, GM, Ford, Chrysler, Chicago Federal Reserve, Detroit, IHS, AutoForecast Solutions, Intelligence, Deloitte, Alliance for Automotive Innovation, Anderson Economic, Deutsche Bank Research, Thomson Locations: Detroit , Michigan, U.S, United States, Bengaluru, Detroit
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Friday the central bank should stick to its goal to bring inflation down to 2%. "I'm uncomfortable with declaring victory when it's clearly not victory," Goolsbee said. "We stated before we got into this what the target was going to be. I just don't feel like you can change your inflation target until you hit it that." Generally considered a more dovish member of the Federal Open Market Committee, Goolsbee did not commit to a policy position.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Jackson, it's, Goolsbee, Jeff Cox Organizations: Chicago Federal, Federal, Market Locations: , Wyoming
Morning Bid: August cools Wall St stocks
  + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
China's factory underperformance stood out once again and underlined its struggling recovery - perhaps the main driver of stalling industrial activity everywhere. With markets increasingly impatient at the patchy and underwhelming economic stimulus plans seen from Beijing so far, China stocks fell back (.CSI300), bucking Tuesday's wider Asia stocks rally. Sterling and UK stocks (.FTMC) fell back. Ride-hailing giant Uber's stock rose more than 2% before the bell and ahead of its earnings report. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Mike Dolan, underperformance, Austan Goolsbee, Goolbee, Stanley Black, Decker, Zimmer Biomet, Revvity, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S ., Chicago Fed, Bank of England, Sterling, AMD, Caterpillar, Big Pharma, Pfizer, Merck, Ride, HSBC, BP, Uber, Prudential Financial, AIG, Starbucks, Molson Coors, Boston Properties, Caesars Entertainment, Illinois Tool, Natural Resources, Energy, Devon Energy, Gartner, Allstate, Paycom Software, Electronic, WEC, Rockwell, Public Service Enterprise, P Global, Dallas Fed, Chicago Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wall, Beijing, China, Asia, ., Marathon, Eaton, Altria, Marriott, Illinois, Progressive
On Tuesday, Goolsbee said his own decision at the Fed's next meeting in September will be driven by what happens on prices. And those metrics suggest, Goolsbee said, that the Fed is on the "golden path" of disinflation without a recession. But, he added, he does not see a tight connection between labor market tightness and inflation - meaning, he believes that inflation can fade even as the job market stays healthy. The Fed's September rate call will depend on what happens with inflation, as will how long the Fed will keep rates high and when it will start cutting, he said. "The answer is, it totally depends on whether we're able to navigate the path and get inflation down without a recession," he said.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Obama, Brendan McDermid, Goolsbee, that's, Banks, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: University of Chicago, Democracy, REUTERS, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Reuters, U.S, Fed, Labor Department, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
Gold subdued on dollar strength as markets await economic data
  + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A technician cleans impurities from melted gold bars at Primera Gold's laboratory in Bukavu, South Kivu Province, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, May 12, 2023. Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar climbed, while investors looked forward to key economic data this week for signs on how long the interest rates could keep rising to quell sticky inflation. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,961.49 per ounce by 0343 GMT, while U.S. gold futures dropped 0.5% to $1,961.10 per ounce. Gold prices ended July 2.3% higher, the biggest monthly rise in four months on expectations that an end to the rate-hiking cycle by global central banks was nearing. This is why the central banks are sticking with the data-dependent mantra," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Nicholas Frappell, Austan Goolsbee, Tim Waterer, Waterer Organizations: Primera Gold's, U.S, ABC Refinery, Chicago Federal, KCM Trade Locations: Bukavu, South Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of Congo, Chicago
[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. European shares gained modestly after euro zone inflation fell further in July seeing that most measures of underlying price growth also eased. "Data out this week should remain superficially consistent with the 'soft landing' narrative," Citi market strategists wrote in a note. Japanese 10-year yields surged to a nine-year high up to 0.6% on Monday, and toward the new cap of 1.0%. U.S. crude rose 1.63% to $81.89 per barrel and Brent was at $85.56, up 0.67% on the day.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Florian Ielpo, Paul Christopher, Christopher, Austan Goolsbee, Sterling, Brent, Lawrence Delevingne, Nell Mackenzie, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple Inc, Caterpillar Inc, Starbucks Corp, Devices, Markets, European Central Bank, Lombard, U.S, Citi, Intel, Lam Research, Wells Fargo Investment, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Bank of England, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wells Fargo, Boston, London
"That would be a Fed triumph and that can involve a couple of rate increases over this year." Remarks from Goolsbee previously sounded more skeptical of the need for further rate hikes on top of what the Fed has already done. The report is suggestive of labor market cooling, Goolsbee said, and the full effect of the Fed's 500 basis points of rate hikes since last March is still to come. Financial markets are pricing a Fed rate hike when policymakers next meet, in two and a half weeks. Services inflation even pre-pandemic was typically higher than the Fed's 2% goal, he said.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, we're, Ann Saphir, Chizu Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, CNBC, Fed, Thomson
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomy on 'golden path' to bring inflation down without a recession, says Chicago Fed presidentAustan Goolsbee, Chicago Federal Reserve president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Friday's jobs report, his overall view of the economy and more.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Chicago Fed, Chicago Federal Reserve Locations: Chicago
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Friday he's confident inflation can be tamed without a recession, even with additional interest rate increases likely. Speaking to CNBC following the release of the June nonfarm payrolls report, he said the ongoing job growth is part of the Fed's "golden path" toward restoring price stability without taking the economy. "That's the golden path, and I feel like we're on that golden path. Though Goolsbee said he is confident the that inflation is ebbing, he also sees more tightening as likely. "That is on the golden path where we get inflation down to something like our target and we do it without a recession."
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, nonfarm payrolls, Goolsbee, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Let's, Payrolls, haven't Organizations: Chicago Federal, CNBC, Federal Open Market
Fed trying to figure out if rates are high enough: Goolsbee
  + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
June 30 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee on Friday said that he and colleagues will be parsing what will be "a lot of data" between now and the Fed's meeting in late July to assess if the US central bank needs to push borrowing costs up higher to bring down inflation. "That's what we are trying to figure out: have we done enough already? Do we still have substantially more to do, a modest amount more to do, and can we get inflation down without a recession?" Goolsbee said in an interview on Fox Business. Reporting by Ann SaphirOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Ann Saphir Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Fox Business, Thomson
He said the full impact of central bank rate increases to date had yet to be felt. “I try ... to make it a point not to prejudge and make decisions when you are still weeks out from the meeting," Goolsbee said. "If you did not do that, the consequences for the financial system and for the broader economy would be extremely negative," Goolsbee said. "Even the anticipation of these problems does have consequences on the economy, it does have consequences on financial markets." Still to come before the Fed's June rate decision is another monthly read on the U.S. unemployment rate, now at a decades-low of 3.4%, and on consumer price inflation.
Fed's Goolsbee: won't prejudge June rate decision
  + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
May 28 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said on Sunday he won't 'prejudge' whether he would support an interest-rate hike at the upcoming Fed meeting in June, but noted that the full impact of the central bank's rate increases to date have yet to be felt. "We are going to get a lot of important data between now and then," Goolsbee told CBS's Face the Nation. "The actions that the Fed takes take months or even years to work their way through the system...there's no doubt inflation is too high, still -- it has come down -- and we are just trying to manage, can we get inflation down without starting a recession." Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
SINGAPORE, May 17 (Reuters) - Asian shares were subdued on Wednesday and the dollar hovered around a five-week peak as investors remained risk averse, with the U.S. debt ceiling talks and a mixed set of economic data weighing on sentiment. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.09% in choppy trading, with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) down 0.45%. Democratic President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy edged closer to a deal to avoid a looming U.S. debt default Tuesday. After an hour of talks, McCarthy, the speaker of the House of Representatives, told reporters the two sides remained far apart on an agreement to lift the debt ceiling. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.01% to 102.61, inching closer to the five-week high of 102.75 it touched on Monday.
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